What is your prediction for this 2018 u4e5du5408u4e00 election? Given that the DPP and KMT have finished a majority of the nominations.

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A2A,Letu2019s start with Taipei: The incumbent, Ko Wen-je (u67efu6587u54f2) will win, hands down.

The opposition is just too weak to slow him down; polls have consistently shown Ko-P beating everyone with over 50% of the votersu2019 support.

Plus, the fact that Ko is a no party appeals to a lot of moderate voters who have given up on both KMT and DPP.

,I have no clue who the KMT candidate (u4e01u5b88u4e2d) is supposed to be.

Considering the fact that most of relatives donu2019t really know who he is either, Iu2019m guessing Ding is not that well-known, which would explain why heu2019s not doing better in a city that is supposed to be a KMT stronghold.

,None of the DPP candidates for Taipei look appetizing either, especially not the former Vice President, u5442u79c0u84ee.

,Letu2019s move on to Taoyuan and Keelung, both traditionally KMT-cities.

However, polls have repeatedly shown that DPP will do well in those cities.

I donu2019t follow local politics that much, so I canu2019t really comment.

,Although the DPP got two of KMT strongholds, looks like the KMT might take two of DPP strongholds: Yilan and Chiayi.

I have no clue whatu2019s going on, since as mentioned, I donu2019t follow local politics.

But the fact that the KMT is gaining support in both Yilan and Chiayi tells me that DPP screwed up somewhere big time.

,Tainan and Kaohsiung will (to no oneu2019s surprise) vote for DPP, as they always do.

,The real noteworthy one is Taichung.

It is currently head by DPP mayor Lin Chia-Lung (u6797u4f73u9f8d).

Actually, the DPP really screwed up Taichung, largely with their anti-nuclear position.

Their attempts to reduce Taiwanu2019s reliance on nuclear power triggered the August 15th blackout (of which Taichung was hit the hardest).

In addition, less reliance on nuclear power means more reliant on coal (or some other non-eco friendly power); Taichungu2019s air quality is at its worse in recent years.

All of this should have spelled an easy KMT victory, but it looks like KMT is still struggling to capture Taichung.

All I can say isu2026 KMT really screwed up in Taichung, even more than the DPP did (which is quite surprising).

,Overall, I think DPP is in a better shape than KMT is.

The KMT actually showed real promise of taking back much of Taiwan a few months ago, but in the past few weeks, KMT support has weakened again.

I suspect itu2019s biggest KMT doesnu2019t really have any strong candidates, but itu2019s probably also because Xi Jinpingu2019s removal of term limits have frightened a lot Taiwanese, to the point that they are afraid to embrace the party that is more pro-Mainland.